UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Maccabi Petah Tikva–SC Braga

0–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Thursday, 1 August 2024 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'SC BragaAdrián Marín (assist: R. Zalazar)
41'SC BragaRoger (assist: Bruma)
45+4'SC BragaR. Zalazar (assist: R. Horta)
62'SC BragaP. Galabov (own goal)
90+1'SC BragaA. El Ouazzani (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Maccabi Petah Tikva		SC Braga
0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
0	Shots inside the box	0
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes	0
0	Fouls	0

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.03 · SC Braga 3.13. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Maccabi Petah Tikva 0 · SC Braga 0; on target 0 and 0.

Referee

E. Manouchos→

4.52

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.7%: “SC Braga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Maccabi Petah Tikva, 3.13 for SC Braga.
The highest double chance value is 90.8% (X2 — draw or SC Braga win).
These values were computed from 1,036 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Maccabi Petah Tikva to win9.2%

Draw12.2%

SC Braga to win78.7%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Maccabi Petah Tikva score1.03

Attack: Maccabi Petah Tikva score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Braga's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Braga score3.13

Attack: SC Braga score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Maccabi Petah Tikva concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 3.13 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–38.2%0–38.0%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.