Inter–Bayern München

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 16 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.8% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Bayern MünchenH. Kane (assist: L. Goretzka)
58'InterLautaro Martínez
61'InterBenjamin Pavard (assist: H. Calhanoglu)
76'Bayern MünchenE. Dier (assist: S. Gnabry)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Inter		Bayern München
15	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	15
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
334	Passes	542
246	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Inter 1.55 · Bayern München 1.62. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Inter 15 · Bayern München 20; on target 6 and 6.
Bayern München kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

S. Vinčić→

4.16

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Bayern München to win”. Second comes “Inter to win” at 37.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Inter, 1.62 for Bayern München.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,953 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Inter to win37.2%

Draw22.9%

Bayern München to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Inter score1.55

Attack: Inter score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Bayern München concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.55 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Bayern München score1.62

Attack: Bayern München score 64% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Inter concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.62 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–110.2%1–28.5%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.