Aston Villa–Paris Saint Germain

3–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 April 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Paris Saint GermainA. Hakimi
27'Paris Saint GermainN. Mendes (assist: O. Dembele)
34'Aston VillaY. Tielemans (assist: J. McGinn)
55'Aston VillaJ. McGinn (assist: P. Torres)
57'Aston VillaE. Konsa (assist: M. Rashford)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aston Villa		Paris Saint Germain
17	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	7
14	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	5
34%	Possession	66%
301	Passes	611
231	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aston Villa 1.27 · Paris Saint Germain 2.21. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Aston Villa 17 · Paris Saint Germain 14; on target 9 and 7.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

José Sánchez→

4.86

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.9%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Aston Villa, 2.21 for Paris Saint Germain.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,025 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aston Villa to win21.5%

Draw19.6%

Paris Saint Germain to win58.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	3

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aston Villa score1.27

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.21

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 70% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–29.6%1–18.4%0–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.