Arsenal–PSV Eindhoven

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 12 March 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Emirates Stadium, London

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'ArsenalO. Zinchenko (assist: R. Sterling)
18'PSV EindhovenI. Perišić (assist: G. Til)
37'ArsenalD. Rice (assist: R. Sterling)
70'PSV EindhovenC. Driouech (assist: I. Babadi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arsenal		PSV Eindhoven
9	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
485	Passes	467
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arsenal 2.01 · PSV Eindhoven 1.04. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Arsenal 9 · PSV Eindhoven 13; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

R. Obrenović→

4.31

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.1%: “Arsenal to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Arsenal, 1.04 for PSV Eindhoven.
The highest double chance value is 80.7% (1X — Arsenal win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,876 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arsenal to win60.1%

Draw20.6%

PSV Eindhoven to win19.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arsenal score2.01

Attack: Arsenal score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score1.04

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 73% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Arsenal concede 42% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.04 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–19.9%1–09.8%1–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.