Club Brugge KV–Aston Villa

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 4 March 2025 at 17:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jan Breydel Stadium, Bruges

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Aston VillaL. Bailey
12'Club Brugge KVM. De Cuyper (assist: C. Tzolis)
82'Aston VillaB. Mechele (own goal)
88'Aston VillaM. Asensio (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Aston Villa
11	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	1
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
518	Passes	409
466	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.02 · Aston Villa 1.23. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Club Brugge KV 11 · Aston Villa 7; on target 3 and 4.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

João Pedro Pinheiro→

4.78

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.0%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “Aston Villa to win” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Club Brugge KV, 1.23 for Aston Villa.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,841 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win56.0%

Draw20.9%

Aston Villa to win23.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.02

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (47% more).

Opponent's defence: Aston Villa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aston Villa score1.23

Attack: Aston Villa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–19.7%1–19.4%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.