UEFA Champions League · Knockout Round Play-offs

PSV Eindhoven–Juventus

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 19 February 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4.3% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'PSV EindhovenI. Perišić (assist: Noa Lang)
63'JuventusT. Weah
74'PSV EindhovenI. Saibari (assist: L. de Jong)
98'PSV EindhovenR. Flamingo

Match statistics

Match statistics
PSV Eindhoven		Juventus
25	Shots	15
10	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
663	Passes	449
552	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: PSV Eindhoven 1.55 · Juventus 1.45. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots PSV Eindhoven 25 · Juventus 15; on target 10 and 4.
PSV Eindhoven kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Vinčić→

4.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “PSV Eindhoven to win”. Second comes “Juventus to win” at 36.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.45 for Juventus.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

PSV Eindhoven to win40.4%

Draw23.6%

Juventus to win36.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals PSV Eindhoven score1.55

Attack: PSV Eindhoven score 75% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Juventus concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.55 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Juventus score1.45

Attack: Juventus score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: PSV Eindhoven concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–18.7%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.