UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 7

Celtic–BSC Young Boys

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 January 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Celtic Park, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'CelticLoris Benito (own goal)
89'CelticD. Maeda · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celtic		BSC Young Boys
16	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	4
5	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
504	Passes	342
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celtic 2.41 · BSC Young Boys 0.79. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Celtic 16 · BSC Young Boys 12; on target 7 and 4.
Celtic kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

R. Saggi→

4.22

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 73.5%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.41 for Celtic, 0.79 for BSC Young Boys.
The highest double chance value is 89.4% (1X — Celtic win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celtic to win73.5%

Draw15.9%

BSC Young Boys to win10.6%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celtic score2.41

Attack: Celtic score 72% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: BSC Young Boys's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals BSC Young Boys score0.79

Attack: BSC Young Boys score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 44% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%1–010.1%3–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.