UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5

Bayer Leverkusen–Red Bull Salzburg

5–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 26 November 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Bayer LeverkusenF. Wirtz (penalty)
11'Bayer LeverkusenÁlex Grimaldo
30'Bayer LeverkusenF. Wirtz (assist: Álex Grimaldo)
61'Bayer LeverkusenPatrik Schick (assist: J. Frimpong)
72'Bayer LeverkusenAleix García (assist: F. Wirtz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		Red Bull Salzburg
29	Shots	7
13	Shots on target	2
23	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	8
6	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
707	Passes	422
633	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.83 · Red Bull Salzburg 0.81. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 29 · Red Bull Salzburg 7; on target 13 and 2.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.46

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.1%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 12.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.83 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg.
The highest double chance value is 91.9% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,117 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win79.1%

Draw12.8%

Red Bull Salzburg to win8.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.83

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: Red Bull Salzburg concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 2.83 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Red Bull Salzburg score0.81

Attack: Red Bull Salzburg score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 0.81 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

2–010.5%3–09.9%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.