UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4

Sparta Praha–Stade Brestois 29

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 6 November 2024 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: epet ARENA, Praha

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Stade Brestois 29E. Fernandes
79'Stade Brestois 29K. Kairinen (own goal)
90+2'Sparta PrahaVictor Olatunji (assist: Lukáš Sadílek)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sparta Praha		Stade Brestois 29
6	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	7
6	Shots inside the box	10
6	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	6
3	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
404	Passes	404
286	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sparta Praha 1.50 · Stade Brestois 29 1.32. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sparta Praha 6 · Stade Brestois 29 18; on target 1 and 7.

Referee

M. Balakin→

4.67

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Sparta Praha to win”. Second comes “Stade Brestois 29 to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Sparta Praha, 1.32 for Stade Brestois 29.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,390 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sparta Praha to win41.9%

Draw24.4%

Stade Brestois 29 to win33.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sparta Praha score1.50

Attack: Sparta Praha score 51% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Stade Brestois 29's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stade Brestois 29 score1.32

Attack: Stade Brestois 29 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sparta Praha concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%1–09.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.