Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Samsunspor–Kasımpaşa

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsun

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

68'KasımpaşaM. Fall
80'KasımpaşaNuno da Costa (assist: M. Ouanes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Samsunspor		Kasımpaşa
13	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
68%	Possession	32%
572	Passes	267
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Samsunspor 1.91 · Kasımpaşa 1.07. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Samsunspor 13 · Kasımpaşa 9; on target 5 and 5.
Samsunspor kept the ball more (68%).

Unavailable players

Samsunspor

Celil Yükselout · yellow-card suspension
Mariusout · red-card suspension
Ľubomír Šatkadoubtful · Muscle Injury

Kasımpaşa

Ali Emre Yanarout · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

Z. Küçük→

5.00

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Samsunspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Samsunspor, 1.13 for Kasımpaşa.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (1X — Samsunspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 950 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Samsunspor to win47.7%

Draw26.7%

Kasımpaşa to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Samsunspor lead at half-time43.6%

Level at half-time39.4%

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Samsunspor ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.6%

X2 — level or Kasımpaşa ahead56.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 949 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Samsunspor: at least 12Actual: 7
Kasımpaşa: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Samsunspor: at least 4Actual: 2
Kasımpaşa: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Samsunspor score1.91

Attack: Samsunspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.07

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Samsunspor concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.