Olympiakos Piraeus–Fiorentina

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 29 May 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 4% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

116'Olympiakos PiraeusA. El Kaabi (assist: Santiago Hezze)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Fiorentina
6	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
4	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
446	Passes	526
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 · Fiorentina 1.34. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Olympiakos Piraeus 6 · Fiorentina 17; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Artur Soares Dias→

5.24

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.6%: “Olympiakos Piraeus to win”. Second comes “Fiorentina to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1.34 for Fiorentina.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,183 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Olympiakos Piraeus to win39.6%

Draw24.7%

Fiorentina to win35.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Olympiakos Piraeus score1.42

Attack: Olympiakos Piraeus score 54% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Fiorentina's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fiorentina score1.34

Attack: Fiorentina score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Olympiakos Piraeus concede 43% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%1–09.4%0–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.