UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offs

Bodo/Glimt–Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

3–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 31 August 2023 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø

The match was decided in extra time. The score covers more than 90 minutes, so it is not used to train the model.

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 22%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'Bodo/GlimtS. Sørli
28'Bodo/GlimtA. Pellegrino
42'Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheI. Alimi
46'Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheR. Varga
100'Bodo/GlimtA. Pellegrino (penalty)
120+1'Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheM. Stefanescu · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodo/Glimt		Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
20	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
0	Shots inside the box	0
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
0	Passes	0
0	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodo/Glimt 1.90 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1.21. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Bodo/Glimt 20 · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 8; on target 7 and 4.
Bodo/Glimt kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

R. Harvey→

4.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.8%: “Bodo/Glimt to win”. Second comes “Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe to win” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Bodo/Glimt, 1.21 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 716 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodo/Glimt to win53.8%

Draw21.7%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe to win24.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	27

1	Yellow cards	8

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodo/Glimt score1.90

Attack: Bodo/Glimt score 61% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe score1.21

Attack: Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodo/Glimt concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%2–19.7%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.