Bayer Leverkusen–West Ham

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 11 April 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BayArena, Leverkusen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

83'Bayer LeverkusenJ. Hofmann
90+1'Bayer LeverkusenV. Boniface (assist: J. Hofmann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bayer Leverkusen		West Ham
33	Shots	1
13	Shots on target	1
20	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
10	Corners	1
2	Offsides	0
73%	Possession	27%
743	Passes	279
674	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen 2.50 · West Ham 0.82. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bayer Leverkusen 33 · West Ham 1; on target 13 and 1.
Bayer Leverkusen kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Artur Soares Dias→

5.21

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 74.3%: “Bayer Leverkusen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.50 for Bayer Leverkusen, 0.82 for West Ham.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — Bayer Leverkusen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,251 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bayer Leverkusen to win74.3%

Draw15.4%

West Ham to win10.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 912 of 1,221 predictions were correct (74.7%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bayer Leverkusen score2.50

Attack: Bayer Leverkusen score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: West Ham's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals West Ham score0.82

Attack: West Ham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bayer Leverkusen concede 37% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%3–09.4%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.