Paris Saint Germain–Borussia Dortmund

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 7 May 2024 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Princes, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Borussia DortmundM. Hummels (assist: J. Brandt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Borussia Dortmund
30	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
18	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
70%	Possession	30%
659	Passes	295
589	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain 2.20 · Borussia Dortmund 1.61. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Paris Saint Germain 30 · Borussia Dortmund 7; on target 5 and 3.
Paris Saint Germain kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

D. Orsato→

4.20

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.5%: “Paris Saint Germain to win”. Second comes “Borussia Dortmund to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Paris Saint Germain, 1.61 for Borussia Dortmund.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris Saint Germain to win51.5%

Draw20.0%

Borussia Dortmund to win28.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris Saint Germain score2.20

Attack: Paris Saint Germain score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Borussia Dortmund's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Borussia Dortmund score1.61

Attack: Borussia Dortmund score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris Saint Germain's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–18.6%1–17.6%2–26.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.