UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1

Villarreal–Lech Poznan

4–3

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 8 September 2022 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia

Goals and red cards

2'Lech PoznanM. Skóraś (assist: M. Ishak)
32'VillarrealSamuel Chukwueze (assist: J. Mojica)
36'VillarrealÁlex Baena (assist: J. Morales)
40'VillarrealÁlex Baena (assist: Samuel Chukwueze)
46'Lech PoznanM. Ishak (penalty)
61'Lech PoznanM. Ishak

Match statistics

Match statistics
Villarreal		Lech Poznan
15	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
1	Offsides	5
56%	Possession	44%
422	Passes	334
371	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Villarreal 15 · Lech Poznan 11; on target 6 and 3.
Villarreal kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Palabıyık→

6.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

Only 40 matches of data exist in this league before this date. A rating computed from that little data is nothing but noise.

14	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.