Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Gaziantep FK–Kayserispor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu, Gaziantep

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Gaziantep FKD. Okereke

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gaziantep FK		Kayserispor
14	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	13
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
4	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
276	Passes	371
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gaziantep FK 1.76 · Kayserispor 1.13. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gaziantep FK 14 · Kayserispor 15; on target 2 and 4.
Kayserispor kept the ball more (58%).

Unavailable players

Gaziantep FK

A. Kızıldağout · yellow-card suspension
Bruno Vianaout · red-card suspension
E. Ersoyout · yellow-card suspension
G. Stephenout · Leg Injury

Kayserispor

A. Kocamanout · Ankle Injury
A. Uzodimmaout · Knee Injury
D. Kolovetsiosout · injury
Gökhan Sazdağıout · Leg Injury
H. A. Kaldirimout · Foot Injury
J. Jeanvierout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

A. Kardeşler→

3.97

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Gaziantep FK to win”. Second comes “Kayserispor to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Gaziantep FK, 1.28 for Kayserispor.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 937 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gaziantep FK to win42.7%

Draw26.9%

Kayserispor to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK win or draw69.6%

12 — any result other than a draw73.1%

X2 — draw or Kayserispor win57.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gaziantep FK lead at half-time42.6%

Level at half-time40.0%

Kayserispor lead at half-time17.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Gaziantep FK ahead or level82.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.0%

X2 — level or Kayserispor ahead57.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 936 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gaziantep FK: at least 10Actual: 11
Kayserispor: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Gaziantep FK: at least 4Actual: 3
Kayserispor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (54.9%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gaziantep FK score1.76

Attack: Gaziantep FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kayserispor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kayserispor score1.13

Attack: Kayserispor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gaziantep FK's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.9%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 937 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 85 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.