2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

Eintracht Braunschweig–Dynamo Dresden

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Dynamo DresdenN. Rapp (assist: A. Muhamedbegović)
5'Eintracht BraunschweigM. Entrup (assist: M. Aydın)
68'Eintracht BraunschweigM. Aydın (penalty)
72'Dynamo DresdenT. Keller (assist: A. Rossipal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		Dynamo Dresden
11	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
37%	Possession	63%
391	Passes	674
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.58 · Dynamo Dresden 1.48. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 11 · Dynamo Dresden 16; on target 5 and 6.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

Eintracht Braunschweig

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Lars Kornetka

Starting XI

R. Hoffmanngoalkeeper
F. Di Michele Sanchezdefender
A. Hotidefender
K. Ehlersdefender
M. Aydındefender
F. Flickmidfielder
Yann Sturmmidfielder
Max Mariemidfielder
S. Di Benedettomidfielder
A. Opokumidfielder
M. Entrupforward

Substitutes

B. Uphoff
I. Koutsidis

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.61 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,262 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win35.0%

Draw25.7%

Dynamo Dresden to win39.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Dynamo Dresden

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Thomas Stamm

Starting XI

T. Schreibergoalkeeper
A. Rossipaldefender
T. Kellerdefender
A. Muhamedbegovićdefender
J. Sternerdefender
N. Hauptmannmidfielder
N. Rappmidfielder
R. Wagnermidfielder
B. Bobzienforward
V. Vermeijforward
K. Okpalaforward

Substitutes

C. Daferner
E. Bethke
F. Muller
J. Lemmer
K. Inanoglu
N. Fröling
P. Čović
S. Straudi
T. Raschl

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 11:14.

Both teams to score65.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 575 of 859 predictions were correct (66.9%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig win or draw60.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or Dynamo Dresden win65.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time38.5%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time34.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level66.0%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1262 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 8
Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 2
Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.58

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.48

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.4%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1262 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 38 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.