2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

SV Darmstadt 98–Arminia Bielefeld

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'SV Darmstadt 98Lee Ho-Jae (assist: N. Weißhaupt)
59'Arminia BielefeldM. Wörl
86'SV Darmstadt 98M. Smit (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		Arminia Bielefeld
12	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
332	Passes	476
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.57 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.49. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 12 · Arminia Bielefeld 16; on target 6 and 4.

Announced lineup

SV Darmstadt 98

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: F. Kohfeldt

Starting XI

M. Schuhengoalkeeper
R. Petrettadefender
Y. Lührsdefender
P. Pfeifferdefender
C. Lannertdefender
N. Weißhauptmidfielder
C. Sickingermidfielder
K. Klefischmidfielder
M. Richtermidfielder
Lee Ho-Jaeforward
M. Smitforward

Substitutes

F. Kleinhansl
Grayson Dettoni

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “SV Darmstadt 98 to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.65 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win31.5%

Draw25.8%

Arminia Bielefeld to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Arminia Bielefeld

Formation: 4-3-3 · Manager: Oliver Kirch

Starting XI

J. Kerskengoalkeeper
A. Sickerdefender
M. Großerdefender
M. Bauerdefender
H. Koudossoudefender
M. Wörlmidfielder
S. Russomidfielder
M. Mehlemmidfielder
J. Rocheltforward
J. Grodowskiforward
M. Momuluhforward

Substitutes

Benjamin Bediako Boakye
D. Min
I. Young
J. Felix
L. Jensen
L. Oppermann
S. Schreck
T. Handwerker
T. Wegener

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 16:44.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw57.3%

12 — any result other than a draw74.2%

X2 — draw or Arminia Bielefeld win68.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time39.1%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1260 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 11Actual: 17
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 4
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.57

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.49

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1260 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.