2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

1. FC Nürnberg–Hannover 96

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'1. FC NürnbergJ. Justvan
8'Hannover 96L. Gindorf (penalty)
65'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Hannover 96
27	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
17	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
489	Passes	415
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.57 · Hannover 96 1.51. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 27 · Hannover 96 9; on target 8 and 2.

Announced lineup

1. FC Nürnberg

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: M. Klose

Starting XI

J. Reichertgoalkeeper
E. Porstnerdefender
F. Ottodefender
A. Kalogeropoulosdefender
T. Janischdefender
J. Fernandezmidfielder
A. Marhievmidfielder
M. Zomamidfielder
F. Beckermidfielder
J. Justvanmidfielder
P. Scobelforward

Substitutes

K. Mandic
Marko Soldic

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.4%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 37.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.77 for Hannover 96.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,260 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win37.5%

Draw24.1%

Hannover 96 to win38.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Hannover 96

Formation: 3-4-3 · Manager: C. Titz

Starting XI

L. Weinkaufgoalkeeper
V. Ghițădefender
B. Tomiakdefender
B. Allgeierdefender
K. Oudennemidfielder
M. Hartelmidfielder
S. Þórðarsonmidfielder
M. Neubauermidfielder
L. Gindorfforward
B. Pichlerforward
W. Taïbiforward

Substitutes

B. Källman
E. Sahiti
F. Roggow
H. Chakroun
H. Matsuda
I. Okon
Noah Engelbreth
P. Loretz
Taycan Macid Etcibasi

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 16:42.

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 113 of 165 predictions were correct (68.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw61.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.9%

X2 — draw or Hannover 96 win62.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time38.9%

Hannover 96 lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Hannover 96 ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1260 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 10
Hannover 96: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 7
Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 699 of 988 predictions were correct (70.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.57

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.51

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.3%1–28.8%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1260 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 140 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.