2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

VfL Osnabrück–Eintracht Braunschweig

3–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bremer Brücke, Osnabruck

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'VfL OsnabrückD. Kyereh
76'VfL OsnabrückB. Jacobsen (assist: A. Beck)
80'VfL OsnabrückR. Meißner
88'Eintracht BraunschweigYann Sturm (assist: Jan Urbich)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Osnabrück		Eintracht Braunschweig
13	Shots	21
8	Shots on target	12
11	Shots inside the box	14
10	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
426	Passes	523
321	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Osnabrück 1.39 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.42. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots VfL Osnabrück 13 · Eintracht Braunschweig 21; on target 8 and 12.
Eintracht Braunschweig kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany→

5.14

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “VfL Osnabrück to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for VfL Osnabrück, 1.35 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,257 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Osnabrück to win41.8%

Draw26.6%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

VfL Osnabrück lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time35.0%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time43.2%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Osnabrück ahead or level56.8%

12 — not level at half-time65.0%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1257 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Osnabrück: at least 10Actual: 11
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

VfL Osnabrück: at least 4Actual: 5
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Osnabrück score1.39

Attack: VfL Osnabrück score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.42

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Osnabrück's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.8%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.