2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–1. FC Heidenheim

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'1. FC HeidenheimB. Zivzivadze (assist: M. Costly)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		1. FC Heidenheim
14	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	3
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
68%	Possession	32%
564	Passes	266
480	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.12 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.94. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14 · 1. FC Heidenheim 6; on target 5 and 5.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Konrad Oldhafer, Germany→

3.75

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 34.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.76 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,257 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win34.4%

Draw24.6%

1. FC Heidenheim to win41.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time64.1%

Level at half-time27.0%

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time8.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level91.1%

12 — not level at half-time73.0%

X2 — level or 1. FC Heidenheim ahead35.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1257 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 8Actual: 7
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 6Actual: 7
1. FC Heidenheim: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score2.12

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 52% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.94

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%1–29.4%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.