2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Hertha BSC–1. FC Magdeburg

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Hertha BSCJ. Brekalo (assist: M. Pedersen)
31'1. FC MagdeburgF. Michel (assist: B. Atik)
47'Hertha BSCO. Adewumi (assist: J. Þorsteinsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		1. FC Magdeburg
11	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
257	Passes	503
182	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.88 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.38. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 11 · 1. FC Magdeburg 18; on target 5 and 5.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Florian Exner, Germany→

4.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for Hertha BSC, 1.42 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 76.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,257 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win50.1%

Draw23.5%

1. FC Magdeburg to win26.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Hertha BSC lead at half-time47.1%

Level at half-time36.1%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time16.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level83.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead52.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1257 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 11Actual: 17
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 5
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.88

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.38

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–110.2%2–27.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.