2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Dynamo Dresden–VfL Bochum

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'VfL BochumK. Miyoshi (assist: Enis Çokaj)
25'VfL BochumK. Miyoshi (assist: T. Meyer)
41'Dynamo DresdenB. Bobzien (assist: N. Hauptmann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		VfL Bochum
15	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
49%	Possession	51%
462	Passes	480
373	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.60 · VfL Bochum 1.33. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 15 · VfL Bochum 15; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.42

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.27 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,256 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win43.9%

Draw26.6%

VfL Bochum to win29.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time38.5%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1256 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 9Actual: 10
VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 8
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.60

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.33

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.1%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.