2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Arminia Bielefeld–FC St. Pauli

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Arminia BielefeldJ. Rochelt (assist: J. Kersken)
20'FC St. PauliT. Hara (assist: D. Nemeth)
51'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski
65'FC St. PauliAbdoulie Ceesay (assist: A. Pyrka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		FC St. Pauli
9	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
461	Passes	604
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.73 · FC St. Pauli 1.38. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 9 · FC St. Pauli 8; on target 2 and 5.
FC St. Pauli kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. Prigan→

5.09

yellows per match

0.09

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “FC St. Pauli to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.44 for FC St. Pauli.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,251 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win40.5%

Draw26.1%

FC St. Pauli to win33.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time18.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

FC St. Pauli lead at half-time41.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level58.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or FC St. Pauli ahead81.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1251 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 12
FC St. Pauli: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 3
FC St. Pauli: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.73

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC St. Pauli's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC St. Pauli score1.38

Attack: FC St. Pauli score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.