2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 4

Hannover 96–Karlsruher SC

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 21%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Hannover 96L. Gindorf
28'Karlsruher SCS. Fukuda
38'Hannover 96M. Hartel (assist: K. Oudenne)
85'Karlsruher SCRafael Pinto Pedrosa (assist: L. Egloff)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Karlsruher SC
12	Shots	20
6	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
471	Passes	424
390	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 2.17 · Karlsruher SC 1.08. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Hannover 96 12 · Karlsruher SC 20; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

T. Bauer→

4.15

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.3%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.27 for Hannover 96, 1.22 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,251 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win61.3%

Draw20.7%

Karlsruher SC to win18.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Hannover 96 lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time38.0%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time16.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level83.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1251 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 10Actual: 12
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 1
Karlsruher SC: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score2.17

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.08

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%1–19.3%3–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.