2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

Energie Cottbus–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

3–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: LEAG Energie Stadion, Cottbus

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Energie CottbusL. Copado (assist: L. Bittencourt)
45+3'SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus (penalty)
46'SpVgg Greuther FürthFousseny Doumbia (own goal)
70'Energie CottbusT. Ciğerci (assist: L. Bittencourt)
72'SpVgg Greuther FürthOle Pohlmann
80'SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus

Match statistics

Match statistics
Energie Cottbus		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
23	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	7
16	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
450	Passes	386
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Energie Cottbus 23 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15; on target 6 and 7.

Referee

F. Weller→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 2 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

11	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.