2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 3

1. FC Heidenheim–Dynamo Dresden

5–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: J. Sterner)
67'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner (assist: M. Heule)
73'Dynamo DresdenR. Wagner (assist: Ben Bobzien)
77'1. FC HeidenheimF. Muller (own goal)
87'1. FC HeidenheimO. Mhamdi
89'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Niehues

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		Dynamo Dresden
27	Shots	17
10	Shots on target	8
20	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	9
4	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
274	Passes	497
198	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.66 · Dynamo Dresden 1.80. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 27 · Dynamo Dresden 17; on target 10 and 8.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Felix Bickel, Germany→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “Dynamo Dresden to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.47 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,244 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win42.5%

Draw25.4%

Dynamo Dresden to win32.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time8.4%

Level at half-time24.9%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time66.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level33.3%

12 — not level at half-time75.1%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead91.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1244 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 11Actual: 8
Dynamo Dresden: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 4Actual: 6
Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score1.66

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.80

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 55% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–19.8%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.