2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

Arminia Bielefeld–Energie Cottbus

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (assist: H. Koudossou)
37'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski
76'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		Energie Cottbus
17	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	0
14	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	10
4	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
345	Passes	518
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Shots Arminia Bielefeld 17 · Energie Cottbus 10; on target 5 and 0.
Energie Cottbus kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Florian Lechner, Germany→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

No probability is published for this match.

One of the teams has only 1 matches in this league (at least 10 are required). A percentage produced from thin data is a guess dressed as certainty — we don't show it.

12	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.