2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

Eintracht Braunschweig–VfL Bochum

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 14 August 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: K. Miyoshi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		VfL Bochum
17	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
55%	Possession	45%
490	Passes	402
402	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.45 · VfL Bochum 1.38. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 17 · VfL Bochum 13; on target 3 and 4.
Eintracht Braunschweig kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Marc Philip Eckermann, Germany→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “VfL Bochum to win” at 34.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.38 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,233 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win38.3%

Draw27.2%

VfL Bochum to win34.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1233 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 9Actual: 11
VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 5Actual: 5
VfL Bochum: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.45

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.38

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–19.4%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.