2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

Karlsruher SC–Arminia Bielefeld

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Karlsruher SCM. Broschinski (assist: M. Wanitzek)
78'Karlsruher SCM. Broschinski (assist: M. Wanitzek)
80'Arminia BielefeldM. Mehlem (assist: I. Young)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Arminia Bielefeld
22	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
463	Passes	345
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 1.62 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.55. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Karlsruher SC 22 · Arminia Bielefeld 12; on target 7 and 5.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Michael Bacher, Germany→

6.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for Karlsruher SC, 1.55 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,225 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win38.8%

Draw25.5%

Arminia Bielefeld to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time40.6%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time28.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level72.0%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 15
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 6
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.62

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.55

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.