2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

1. FC Heidenheim–VfL Osnabrück

4–3

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'1. FC HeidenheimB. Zivzivadze (assist: M. Costly)
23'VfL OsnabrückN. Wiemann (assist: K. Faber)
29'1. FC HeidenheimM. Costly (assist: M. Honsak)
34'VfL OsnabrückD. Kopacz (assist: K. Faber)
45'1. FC HeidenheimJ. Schöppner (assist: J. Föhrenbach)
89'1. FC Heidenheim

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Heidenheim		VfL Osnabrück
20	Shots	26
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	13
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
9	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
474	Passes	409
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.58 · VfL Osnabrück 0.58. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots 1. FC Heidenheim 20 · VfL Osnabrück 26; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.4%: “1. FC Heidenheim to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.58 for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0.58 for VfL Osnabrück.
The highest double chance value is 94.9% (1X — 1. FC Heidenheim win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,225 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Heidenheim to win81.4%

Draw13.5%

VfL Osnabrück to win5.1%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–2

1. FC Heidenheim lead at half-time62.0%

Level at half-time31.8%

VfL Osnabrück lead at half-time6.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Heidenheim ahead or level93.8%

12 — not level at half-time68.2%

X2 — level or VfL Osnabrück ahead38.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 12Actual: 6
VfL Osnabrück: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Heidenheim: at least 6Actual: 4
VfL Osnabrück: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Heidenheim score2.58

Attack: 1. FC Heidenheim score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: VfL Osnabrück concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Osnabrück score0.58

Attack: VfL Osnabrück score below the league average (34% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Heidenheim concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%3–012.7%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.