2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 1

1. FC Magdeburg–Eintracht Braunschweig

1–6

HT 0–4

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Eintracht BraunschweigA. Opoku (assist: Max Marie)
21'Eintracht BraunschweigJan Urbich (assist: Max Marie)
26'Eintracht BraunschweigJan Urbich (assist: S. Di Benedetto)
31'1. FC MagdeburgH. Bockhorn · red card
44'Eintracht BraunschweigM. Aydın (penalty)
49'1. FC Magdeburg

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Eintracht Braunschweig
10	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	13
7	Shots inside the box	16
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
442	Passes	507
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.95 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02. On the pitch: 1-6.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 10 · Eintracht Braunschweig 24; on target 3 and 13.

Referee

Felix Prigan, Germany→

5.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.02 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 82.3% (1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,225 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win59.2%

Draw23.1%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win17.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–4

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time43.5%

Level at half-time38.2%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead56.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1225 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 13
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 5
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.95

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.95 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.02

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.