Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 6

RED Star FC 93–Metz

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'RED Star FC 93J. Ikanga A Ngele (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Metz
19	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
464	Passes	424
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.29 · Metz 1.40. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 19 · Metz 11; on target 7 and 1.

Announced lineup

RED Star FC 93

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: D. Perrinelle

Starting XI

G. Poussingoalkeeper
M. Huarddefender
E. Zidanedefender
D. Durivauxdefender
T. Magnindefender
S. Renelmidfielder
I. Halifamidfielder
J. Ikanga A Ngelemidfielder
S. Khaouimidfielder
K. Cissémidfielder
K. Cabralforward

Substitutes

B. Danger
Cheick Konate

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “Metz to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.40 for RED Star FC 93, 1.24 for Metz.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,423 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win39.8%

Draw28.1%

Metz to win32.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

26	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Yanis Benchaouch Marty

Metz

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: L. Holtz

Starting XI

J. Fischergoalkeeper
M. Colindefender
U. Mbouladefender
C. Devenishdefender
B. Sarrdefender
B. Munongomidfielder
J. Deminguetmidfielder
J. Pandoremidfielder
T. Savaniermidfielder
G. Abuashvilimidfielder
P. Fallforward

Substitutes

A. Agne Ba
B. Song
F. Miguel
Ibou Sané
J. Ruiz
N. Mbala
N. Mendy
P. Sy

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Monday, 14 September 2026 at 18:42.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw68.0%

12 — any result other than a draw71.9%

X2 — draw or Metz win60.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time43.7%

Metz lead at half-time33.9%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level66.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Metz ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1423 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 12Actual: 26
Metz: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 5Actual: 9
Metz: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.29

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Metz's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Metz score1.40

Attack: Metz score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.5%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1423 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.