Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 6

Montpellier–PAU

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'MontpellierT. Sainte-Luce (assist: F. Tardieu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Montpellier		PAU
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	1
74%	Possession	26%
732	Passes	260
663	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Montpellier 1.58 · PAU 0.99. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Montpellier 12 · PAU 11; on target 4 and 2.
Montpellier kept the ball more (74%).

Announced lineup

Montpellier

Formation: 4-1-4-1 · Manager: Z. Camara

Starting XI

S. Ngapandouetnbugoalkeeper
D. Meddahdefender
Y. Mouangadefender
J. Laportedefender
Naoufel El Hannachdefender
T. Sainte-Lucemidfielder
N. Mukielemidfielder
F. Tardieumidfielder
Gregory Ayemmidfielder
N. Paysmidfielder
M. Camaraforward

Substitutes

Daryll Benlahlou
Everson

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.6%: “Montpellier to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Montpellier, 1.02 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Montpellier win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,415 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Montpellier to win51.6%

Draw26.4%

PAU to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

PAU

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: Thierry Debes

Starting XI

B. Maubleugoalkeeper
A. Abdallahdefender
G. Paquiezdefender
A. Briançondefender
S. Bassedefender
T. Pouillydefender
L. Rajotmidfielder
J. Benetmidfielder
C. Fallmidfielder
H. Benaliforward
B. Leyeforward

Substitutes

A. Dodote
A. Lefebvre
B. Brahimi
E. Salles
J. Sebas
L. Gadegbeku
M. Tourraine
R. Baheng
T. Saettel

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Friday, 11 September 2026 at 18:14.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Montpellier win or draw77.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or PAU win48.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Montpellier lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time43.2%

PAU lead at half-time21.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Montpellier ahead or level78.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or PAU ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1415 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Montpellier: at least 15Actual: 13
PAU: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Montpellier: at least 5Actual: 6
PAU: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Montpellier score1.58

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score0.99

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Montpellier's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–010.7%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1415 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 39 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.