Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 5

Saint Etienne–Montpellier

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Saint EtienneM. Bernauer (assist: I. Cardona)
45+5'MontpellierD. Meddah (assist: N. Mukiele)
49'Saint EtienneA. Boakye (assist: T. Svetlin)
71'Saint EtienneJ. Duffus (assist: I. Cardona)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Saint Etienne		Montpellier
14	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
431	Passes	525
364	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Saint Etienne 1.63 · Montpellier 0.95. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Saint Etienne 14 · Montpellier 6; on target 5 and 3.
Montpellier kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Taleb→

3.24

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.4%: “Saint Etienne to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for Saint Etienne, 0.97 for Montpellier.
The highest double chance value is 83.3% (1X — Saint Etienne win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,413 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Saint Etienne to win60.4%

Draw22.9%

Montpellier to win16.7%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	21

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Saint Etienne lead at half-time45.9%

Level at half-time41.3%

Montpellier lead at half-time12.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Saint Etienne ahead or level87.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Montpellier ahead54.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1413 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Saint Etienne: at least 13Actual: 18
Montpellier: at least 14Actual: 21

Corners

Saint Etienne: at least 4Actual: 5
Montpellier: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Saint Etienne score1.63

Attack: Saint Etienne score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Montpellier concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Montpellier score0.95

Attack: Montpellier score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Saint Etienne concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.