Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 5

Boulogne–Dijon

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 4 September 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'BoulogneT. Epailly (assist: B. Besic)
63'DijonT. Dong (assist: J. Marié)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boulogne		Dijon
15	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
10	Corners	5
4	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
422	Passes	498
323	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boulogne 1.21 · Dijon 1.28. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Boulogne 15 · Dijon 12; on target 3 and 6.

Referee

E. Rosier→

3.28

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Dijon to win”. Second comes “Boulogne to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for Boulogne, 1.20 for Dijon.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,406 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boulogne to win32.8%

Draw30.3%

Dijon to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Boulogne lead at half-time17.7%

Level at half-time53.5%

Dijon lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Boulogne ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time46.5%

X2 — level or Dijon ahead82.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1406 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boulogne: at least 13Actual: 10
Dijon: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Boulogne: at least 2Actual: 10
Dijon: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boulogne score1.21

Attack: Boulogne score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dijon's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dijon score1.28

Attack: Dijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boulogne's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–111.0%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.