Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 4

Clermont Foot–Sochaux

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 August 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Clermont Foot		Sochaux
6	Shots	5
2	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
521	Passes	385
434	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Clermont Foot 1.30 · Sochaux 0.72. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Clermont Foot 6 · Sochaux 5; on target 2 and 1.
Clermont Foot kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Gabriel Henry, France→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Clermont Foot to win”. Second comes “Sochaux to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Clermont Foot, 1.18 for Sochaux.
The highest double chance value is 70.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,397 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Clermont Foot to win36.3%

Draw29.7%

Sochaux to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Clermont Foot lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time45.2%

Sochaux lead at half-time19.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Clermont Foot ahead or level80.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Sochaux ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1397 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Clermont Foot: at least 9Actual: 15
Sochaux: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Clermont Foot: at least 5Actual: 8
Sochaux: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Clermont Foot score1.30

Attack: Clermont Foot score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sochaux's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sochaux score0.72

Attack: Sochaux score below the league average (54% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Clermont Foot's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.1%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.