Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 2

RED Star FC 93–Sochaux

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 August 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 19%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
RED Star FC 93		Sochaux
20	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
67%	Possession	33%
548	Passes	276
477	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 1.97 · Sochaux 0.41. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots RED Star FC 93 20 · Sochaux 6; on target 5 and 2.
RED Star FC 93 kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Pierre Retail, France→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.7%: “RED Star FC 93 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.97 for RED Star FC 93, 0.41 for Sochaux.
The highest double chance value is 94.2% (1X — RED Star FC 93 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,379 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

RED Star FC 93 to win75.7%

Draw18.5%

Sochaux to win5.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

RED Star FC 93 lead at half-time71.1%

Level at half-time26.2%

Sochaux lead at half-time2.7%

First-half double chance

1X — RED Star FC 93 ahead or level97.3%

12 — not level at half-time73.8%

X2 — level or Sochaux ahead28.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1379 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

RED Star FC 93: at least 10Actual: 7
Sochaux: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

RED Star FC 93: at least 2Actual: 12
Sochaux: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals RED Star FC 93 score1.97

Attack: RED Star FC 93 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sochaux concede 35% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sochaux score0.41

Attack: Sochaux score below the league average (67% fewer).

Opponent's defence: RED Star FC 93's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–018.8%1–017.9%3–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.