Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Başakşehir–Sivasspor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 3 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, İstanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'BaşakşehirDeniz Türüç

Match statistics

Match statistics
Başakşehir		Sivasspor
11	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
526	Passes	326
451	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Başakşehir 1.98 · Sivasspor 0.87. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Başakşehir 11 · Sivasspor 7; on target 3 and 0.
Başakşehir kept the ball more (62%).

Unavailable players

Başakşehir

Christopher Operiout · Knee Injury
F. Eboseleout · Ankle Injury
Jerome Opokuout · red-card suspension
Onur Ergünout · Foot Injury

Sivasspor

M. Albayrakout · Knee Injury
U. Radakovicout · red-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:07.

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

5.44

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.7%: “Başakşehir to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for Başakşehir, 0.79 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 87.0% (1X — Başakşehir win or draw).
These values were computed from 925 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Başakşehir to win64.7%

Draw22.2%

Sivasspor to win13.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Başakşehir lead at half-time48.1%

Level at half-time37.5%

Sivasspor lead at half-time14.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Başakşehir ahead or level85.6%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead51.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 924 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Başakşehir: at least 13Actual: 14
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Başakşehir: at least 4Actual: 6
Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Başakşehir score1.98

Attack: Başakşehir score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score0.87

Attack: Sivasspor score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Başakşehir's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.7%1–012.1%1–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.