Serie B · Italy · Regular Season - 2

Sampdoria–Juve Stabia

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

45'SampdoriaG. Tutino (assist: Y. Verschaeren)
73'Juve StabiaM. Bellich (assist: F. Artioli)
82'Juve StabiaA. Di Nardo (assist: T. Battistella)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sampdoria		Juve Stabia
16	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
405	Passes	485
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sampdoria 1.13 · Juve Stabia 0.95. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sampdoria 16 · Juve Stabia 17; on target 6 and 5.
Juve Stabia kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Giuseppe Mucera, Italy→

3.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Sampdoria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Sampdoria, 0.87 for Juve Stabia.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Sampdoria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,531 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sampdoria to win51.4%

Draw28.0%

Juve Stabia to win20.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sampdoria lead at half-time19.6%

Level at half-time48.4%

Juve Stabia lead at half-time32.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Sampdoria ahead or level68.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.6%

X2 — level or Juve Stabia ahead80.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1531 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sampdoria: at least 14Actual: 8
Juve Stabia: at least 15Actual: 10

Corners

Sampdoria: at least 4Actual: 2
Juve Stabia: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sampdoria score1.13

Attack: Sampdoria score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Juve Stabia's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Juve Stabia score0.95

Attack: Juve Stabia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sampdoria's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–013.5%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.