Championship · England · Regular Season - 7

Swansea–Burnley

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'SwanseaA. Idah
33'SwanseaM. Yeo (assist: E. Just)
58'BurnleyL. Ramazani (assist: Igor)
68'SwanseaZ. Vipotnik (assist: Ronald)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Burnley
13	Shots	18
6	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
4	Offsides	4
54%	Possession	46%
552	Passes	454
472	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.36 · Burnley 1.15. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Swansea 13 · Burnley 18; on target 6 and 6.

Announced lineup

Swansea

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Vítor Matos

Starting XI

L. Vigourouxgoalkeeper
J. Tymondefender
S. Welshdefender
B. Cabangodefender
J. Keydefender
M. Stamenićmidfielder
S. Eustáquiomidfielder
M. Yeomidfielder
M. Widellmidfielder
E. Justmidfielder
A. Idahforward

Substitutes

A. Fisher
F. Lissah

Unavailable players

Swansea

C. Burgessout · Achilles Tendon Injury
R. Stewartout · injury
G. Francodoubtful · Ankle Injury

Burnley

A. Barnesout · injury
B. Humphreysout · not in squad
D. Satpaevout · Hamstring Injury
E. Agyeiout · injury
H. Mejbriout · not in squad
J. Banelout · injury
J. Beyerout · Hamstring Injury
J. Bruun Larsenout · injury
J. Cullenout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.9%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Swansea, 1.15 for Burnley.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (1X — Swansea win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win45.9%

Draw27.2%

Burnley to win26.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Burnley

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: N. Hayen

Starting XI

M. Weißgoalkeeper
C. Robertsdefender
Igordefender
K. Walkerdefender
O. Sonnedefender
Max Alleynemidfielder
U. Raghoubermidfielder
L. Ramazanimidfielder
J. Laurentmidfielder
A. Ramseymidfielder
Z. Amdouniforward

Substitutes

A. Ahmedhodžić
A. Broja
A. Hountondji
G. Coudert
H. Ekdal
J. Vardy
L. Castell
Lucas Pires
R. Hatate

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw73.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Burnley win54.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Swansea lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time42.4%

Burnley lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Burnley ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 9Actual: 7
Burnley: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Swansea: at least 4Actual: 3
Burnley: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.36

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burnley's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burnley score1.15

Attack: Burnley score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.2%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2281 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.