Championship · England · Regular Season - 7

Middlesbrough–Norwich

4–3

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'NorwichM. Touré
4'MiddlesbroughS. Berhalter (assist: T. Conway)
7'MiddlesbroughA. Cozier-Duberry (assist: T. Conway)
36'MiddlesbroughS. Berhalter
70'NorwichJ. Makama (assist: Jacob Wright)
75'NorwichJacob Wright (assist: P. Maghoma)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Middlesbrough		Norwich
17	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
433	Passes	429
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Middlesbrough 1.75 · Norwich 1.03. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots Middlesbrough 17 · Norwich 13; on target 6 and 5.

Announced lineup

Middlesbrough

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: K. Hellberg

Starting XI

R. Vítekgoalkeeper
Neto Borgesdefender
A. Malandadefender
A. Jonesdefender
C. Brittaindefender
A. Morrismidfielder
S. Berhaltermidfielder
T. Conwaymidfielder
A. Cozier-Duberrymidfielder
R. McGreemidfielder
W. Lankshearforward

Substitutes

A. Phillips
D. Strelec

Unavailable players

Middlesbrough

J. Sarmientodoubtful · not in squad

Norwich

A. Ahmedout · Knee Injury
L. Mahovoout · Ankle Injury
M. Topicout · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “Middlesbrough to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Middlesbrough, 1.25 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Middlesbrough win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Middlesbrough to win51.3%

Draw24.4%

Norwich to win24.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

90+1'MiddlesbroughA. Phillips

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Norwich

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: P. Clement

Starting XI

V. Kovačevićgoalkeeper
B. Chrisenedefender
J. Córdobadefender
Ruairi McConvilledefender
K. Fisherdefender
P. Mattssonmidfielder
K. McLeanmidfielder
A. Musabamidfielder
A. Ben Slimanemidfielder
A. Brooksmidfielder
M. Touréforward

Substitutes

A. Crnac
D. Grimshaw
H. Darling
J. Makama
J. Stacey
Jacob Wright
O. Schwartau
P. Maghoma
S. Field

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Middlesbrough win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw75.6%

X2 — draw or Norwich win48.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.4%).

First half

Actual: 3–1

Middlesbrough lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time41.0%

Norwich lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Middlesbrough ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Middlesbrough: at least 9Actual: 13
Norwich: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Middlesbrough: at least 5Actual: 3
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Middlesbrough score1.75

Attack: Middlesbrough score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.03

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Middlesbrough concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.7%2–110.6%2–07.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2281 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 189 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.