Too close to call — we gave this result 36%✓ double chance: correct
This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record
Goals and red cards
41'⚽BlackburnO. Afolayan (assist: Sam Morsy)
51'⚽MillwallL. Dykes (penalty)
58'⚽BlackburnO. Afolayan (assist: T. Atcheson)
90+3'⚽BlackburnA. Guðjohnsen (assist: J. Fevrier)
Match statistics
Match statistics
Blackburn
Millwall
18
Shots
16
4
Shots on target
2
8
Shots inside the box
13
1
Goalkeeper saves
1
6
Corners
3
1
Offsides
2
45%
Possession
55%
356
Passes
437
281
Accurate passes
What we expected, and what happened
Expected goals before kick-off: Blackburn 1.25 · Millwall 1.22. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Blackburn 18 · Millwall 16; on target 4 and 2.
Millwall kept the ball more (55%).
Announced lineup
Blackburn
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Tony Mowbray
Starting XI
B. Tóthgoalkeeper
Yuri Ribeirodefender
S. McLoughlindefender
T. Atchesondefender
R. Alebiosudefender
Kristi Montgomerymidfielder
Sam Morsymidfielder
O. Afolayanmidfielder
T. Cantwellmidfielder
R. Morishitamidfielder
H. Carterforward
Substitutes
A. Guðjohnsen
A. Pears
Unavailable players
Blackburn
A. Kargboout · Muscle Injury
L. Millerout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Jorgensenout · Hamstring Injury
M. Litherlandout · Muscle Injury
S. Whartonout · Achilles Tendon Injury
Y. Ohashiout · not in squad
M. Baradjidoubtful · Hamstring Injury
Millwall
A. Doughtyout · Hamstring Injury
C. De Norreout · injury
J. Coburnout · Muscle Injury
Jenson Metcalfeout · red-card suspension
K. Lisbieout · injury
L. Cundleout · not in squad
Referee
The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.
Model prediction
Why this prediction?
·The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Millwall to win”. Second comes “Blackburn to win” at 35.5%.
·Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Blackburn, 1.34 for Millwall.
·The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
·These values were computed from 2,281 past matches.
This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.
These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.
Blackburn to win35.5%
Draw28.1%
Millwall to win36.3%
When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →
345
9
Fouls
15
5
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.
F. Vare
Gady Beyuku
H. Pickering
J. Fevrier
J. Garrett
M. Baradji
Millwall
Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: A. Neil
Starting XI
M. Crocombegoalkeeper
Zak Norton Sturgedefender
J. Cooperdefender
C. Taylordefender
J. Osei-Tutudefender
Jenson Metcalfemidfielder
D. Mazou-Sackomidfielder
C. Neghlimidfielder
T. Arcontemidfielder
R. Essemidfielder
L. Dykesforward
Substitutes
Alfie Massey
D. Batth
D. Kelly
E. Baggott
F. Marschall
M. Sykes
Y. Issoufou
Z. Lovelace
Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.
L. Jensen
out · not in squad
M. Ivanovicout · Hamstring Injury
M. Luongoout · Knee Injury
M. Servaisout · Hamstring Injury
T. Cramaout · not in squad
M. Sykesdoubtful · injury
R. Leonarddoubtful · Hamstring Injury
Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.
Both teams to score
57.3%
When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →
Double chance
1X — Blackburn win or draw63.7%
12 — any result other than a draw71.9%
X2 — draw or Millwall win64.5%
These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.1%).
First half
Actual: 1–0
Blackburn lead at half-time22.7%
Level at half-time46.1%
Millwall lead at half-time31.2%
First-half double chance
1X — Blackburn ahead or level68.8%
12 — not level at half-time53.9%
X2 — level or Millwall ahead77.3%
These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.
Expected fouls and corners
Fouls
Blackburn
at least 8Actual: 9
Millwall
at least 10Actual: 15
Corners
Blackburn
at least 5Actual: 6
Millwall
at least 4Actual: 3
These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.
Goals market
3+ goals50.1%
When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →
The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.
What these probabilities rest on
Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.
How many goals Blackburn score1.25
Attack: Blackburn score below the league average (18% fewer).
Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).
How many goals Millwall score1.22
Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.
Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.
Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).
Most likely scorelines
1–114.2%1–29.0%2–18.9%
A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.
Ratings were computed from 2281 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 189 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.
