Championship · England · Regular Season - 7

Watford–Stoke City

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vicarage Road, Watford

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+4'Stoke CityJ. McGlynn
57'Stoke CityE. Bocat (assist: L. Cisse)
90+1'WatfordAmin Nabizada (assist: E. Kayembe)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Watford		Stoke City
6	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	8
0	Offsides	3
40%	Possession	60%
380	Passes	545
304	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Watford 1.44 · Stoke City 1.06. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Watford 6 · Stoke City 18; on target 2 and 6.
Stoke City kept the ball more (60%).

Announced lineup

Watford

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: A. Dionisi

Starting XI

F. Ravagliagoalkeeper
J. Zemuradefender
S. Coulibalydefender
M. Pollockdefender
K. Kebendefender
H. Kyprianoumidfielder
E. Kayembemidfielder
S. Mavididimidfielder
Iker Bravomidfielder
O. Maammamidfielder
M. Doumbiaforward

Substitutes

Albert Eames
Amin Nabizada

Unavailable players

Watford

B. Mlacicout · not in squad
E. Boveout · Knee Injury
J. Grievesout · Lacking Match Fitness
J. Ngakiaout · Thigh Injury
K. Baahout · Knock
M. Boaduout · injury
M. Bolaout · Hamstring Injury
T. Akomeahout · Lacking Match Fitness

Stoke City

A. Cresswellout · Knee Injury
B. Gibsonout · Head Injury
B. Lawalout · not in squad
S. Gallagherout · injury
S. Ingelssonout · injury
A. Ampah

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Watford to win”. Second comes “Stoke City to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Watford, 1.24 for Stoke City.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,281 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Watford to win40.9%

Draw27.9%

Stoke City to win31.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Stoke City

Formation: 3-5-2 · Manager: M. Robins

Starting XI

V. Johanssongoalkeeper
L. Grahamdefender
M. Talovierovdefender
B. Wilmotdefender
E. Bocatmidfielder
E. Galbraithmidfielder
El Hadji Djibril Soumarémidfielder
J. Devennymidfielder
B. Johnsonmidfielder
J. McGlynnforward
L. Cisseforward

Substitutes

B. Gibson
B. Pearson
F. Anderson
G. Hirst
J. Griffiths
L. Bombino
M. Manhoef
R. Boženík
T. Rigo

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 14:14.

doubtful · Hamstring Injury

J. Tchamadeudoubtful · Knee Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Watford win or draw68.7%

12 — any result other than a draw72.1%

X2 — draw or Stoke City win59.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Watford lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time42.0%

Stoke City lead at half-time36.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Watford ahead or level63.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Stoke City ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2281 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Watford: at least 9Actual: 14
Stoke City: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

Watford: at least 4Actual: 5
Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals50.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Watford score1.44

Attack: Watford score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stoke City score1.06

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Watford's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2281 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 190 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.