Championship · England · Regular Season - 7

Derby–Birmingham

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'DerbyB. Clark (assist: S. Szmodics)
42'BirminghamCarlos Vicente (assist: L. Millar)
63'BirminghamPaik Seung-Ho (assist: L. Millar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Birmingham
18	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	9
10	Shots inside the box	14
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
382	Passes	275
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.25 · Birmingham 1.23. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Derby 18 · Birmingham 19; on target 4 and 9.
Derby kept the ball more (59%).

Announced lineup

Derby

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: J. Eustace

Starting XI

J. Widell Zetterströmgoalkeeper
C. Taylordefender
E. Cashindefender
S. Langåsdefender
J. Warddefender
D. Ozohmidfielder
B. Clarkmidfielder
M. Fuseinimidfielder
S. Szmodicsmidfielder
H. Meistermidfielder
C. Morrisforward

Substitutes

A. Mowatt
C. Blackett-Taylor

Unavailable players

Derby

C. Forsythout · Knee Injury
C. Morrisout · Calf Injury
D. Murkinout · Hamstring Injury
F. Bilbijaout · not in squad
L. Travisout · Leg Injury
M. Clarkeout · Calf Injury
P. Agyemangout · Achilles Tendon Injury
R. Brewsterout · injury

Birmingham

D. Grayout · injury
J. E. Solis Romeroout · not in squad
M. Birdout · not in squad
M. Leonardout · Achilles Tendon Injury
P. Robertsout · Health problems
S. Wright

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.8%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.08 for Derby, 1.44 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (X2 — draw or Birmingham win).
These values were computed from 2,278 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win27.0%

Draw28.3%

Birmingham to win44.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Birmingham

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: C. Davies

Starting XI

J. Beadlegoalkeeper
A. Cochranedefender
C. Klarerdefender
P. Neumanndefender
B. Osayi-Samueldefender
J. E. Solis Romeromidfielder
T. Iwatamidfielder
L. Millarmidfielder
J. Stansfieldmidfielder
Carlos Vicentemidfielder
A. Priskeforward

Substitutes

D. Fry
E. Laird
K. Fujimoto
K. Lund
L. Buchanan
L. Vázquez
M. Ducksch
Paik Seung-Ho
R. Allsop

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 11:44.

out · Off the roster

T. Gardner-Hickmanout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Derby win or draw55.2%

12 — any result other than a draw71.7%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win73.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

Derby lead at half-time38.4%

Level at half-time40.3%

Birmingham lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.7%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead61.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2278 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 10Actual: 8
Birmingham: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Derby: at least 4Actual: 10
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.25

Attack: Derby score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.23

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%0–110.7%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2278 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 98 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.