Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

Norwich–Birmingham

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'NorwichO. Schwartau (assist: M. Kvistgaarden)
39'NorwichP. Diallo (assist: A. Brooks)
64'BirminghamCarlos Vicente (assist: L. Millar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Norwich		Birmingham
15	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	7
3	Offsides	4
51%	Possession	49%
339	Passes	327
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Norwich 1.43 · Birmingham 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Norwich 15 · Birmingham 14; on target 6 and 3.

Announced lineup

Norwich

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: P. Clement

Starting XI

V. Kovačevićgoalkeeper
B. Chrisenedefender
J. Córdobadefender
Ruairi McConvilledefender
J. Staceydefender
P. Mattssonmidfielder
K. McLeanmidfielder
O. Schwartaumidfielder
P. Diallomidfielder
A. Brooksmidfielder
M. Kvistgaardenforward

Substitutes

A. Crnac
A. Musaba

Unavailable players

Norwich

A. Ahmedout · Knee Injury
L. Mahovoout · Ankle Injury
M. Topicout · Knee Injury
J. Makamadoubtful · Foot Injury

Birmingham

D. Grayout · injury
J. E. Solis Romeroout · not in squad
L. Buchananout · Knee Injury
M. Birdout · not in squad
M. Leonardout · Achilles Tendon Injury
T. Gardner-Hickmanout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

Tom Reeves, England→

3.33

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.9%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Norwich, 1.10 for Birmingham.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Norwich win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,274 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Norwich to win50.9%

Draw25.9%

Birmingham to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	9

6	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Birmingham

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: C. Davies

Starting XI

J. Beadlegoalkeeper
K. Lunddefender
C. Klarerdefender
P. Neumanndefender
B. Osayi-Samueldefender
Paik Seung-Homidfielder
T. Iwatamidfielder
L. Millarmidfielder
J. Stansfieldmidfielder
Carlos Vicentemidfielder
A. Priskeforward

Substitutes

A. Cochrane
Bradley Mayo
D. Fry
E. Laird
K. Fujimoto
L. Buchanan
L. Vázquez
M. Ducksch
R. Allsop

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Norwich win or draw76.8%

12 — any result other than a draw74.1%

X2 — draw or Birmingham win49.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Norwich lead at half-time39.1%

Level at half-time39.9%

Birmingham lead at half-time21.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Norwich ahead or level79.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Birmingham ahead60.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2274 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Norwich: at least 9Actual: 12
Birmingham: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Norwich: at least 4Actual: 6
Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Norwich score1.43

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Birmingham score1.18

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2274 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.