Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

Blackburn–Sheffield Utd

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'BlackburnKristi Montgomery
35'Sheffield UtdT. Cannon (assist: Sydie Peck)
44'Sheffield UtdSydie Peck (assist: J. Rothwell)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Blackburn		Sheffield Utd
19	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
63%	Possession	37%
630	Passes	382
534	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Blackburn 1.29 · Sheffield Utd 1.24. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Blackburn 19 · Sheffield Utd 7; on target 5 and 4.
Blackburn kept the ball more (63%).

Announced lineup

Blackburn

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Tony Mowbray

Starting XI

A. Pearsgoalkeeper
Yuri Ribeirodefender
S. McLoughlindefender
T. Atchesondefender
R. Alebiosudefender
Kristi Montgomerymidfielder
Sam Morsymidfielder
J. Fevriermidfielder
T. Cantwellmidfielder
R. Morishitamidfielder
O. Afolayanforward

Substitutes

A. Forshaw
B. Tóth

Unavailable players

Blackburn

A. Kargboout · Muscle Injury
L. Millerout · Achilles Tendon Injury
M. Baradjiout · Hamstring Injury
M. Jorgensenout · Hamstring Injury
M. Litherlandout · Muscle Injury
S. Whartonout · Achilles Tendon Injury
Y. Ohashiout · not in squad
H. Pickeringdoubtful · not in squad

Sheffield Utd

F. Serikiout · not in squad
H. Burrowsout · not in squad
R. Oneout · Hamstring Injury
T. Chongout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Sheffield Utd to win”. Second comes “Blackburn to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Blackburn, 1.45 for Sheffield Utd.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,268 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Blackburn to win31.4%

Draw27.7%

Sheffield Utd to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Sheffield Utd

Formation: 4-4-2 · Manager: Chris Wilder

Starting XI

M. Coopergoalkeeper
R. Norrington-Daviesdefender
L. Kitchingdefender
J. Tangangadefender
H. Choudhurydefender
S. McCallummidfielder
J. Rothwellmidfielder
Sydie Peckmidfielder
R. Donovanmidfielder
B. Breretonforward
T. Cannonforward

Substitutes

A. Davies
J. Ayew
J. Baptiste
J. Riedewald
K. Phillips
M. Doherty
O. Arblaster
P. Bamford
T. Campbell

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Blackburn win or draw59.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Sheffield Utd win68.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Blackburn lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time44.5%

Sheffield Utd lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Blackburn ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Sheffield Utd ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2268 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 9
Sheffield Utd: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Blackburn: at least 5Actual: 7
Sheffield Utd: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Blackburn score1.29

Attack: Blackburn score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sheffield Utd score1.24

Attack: Sheffield Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.7%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2268 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.