Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

Southampton–Swansea

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'SouthamptonF. Azaz (assist: F. Downes)
33'SouthamptonC. Larin (assist: J. Bree)
52'SwanseaZ. Vipotnik (penalty)
78'SouthamptonLéo Scienza (assist: K. Matsuki)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Southampton		Swansea
16	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	2
16	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	3
5	Offsides	3
49%	Possession	51%
449	Passes	498
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Southampton 1.72 · Swansea 1.04. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Southampton 16 · Swansea 10; on target 4 and 2.

Announced lineup

Southampton

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Tonda Eckert

Starting XI

Daniel Peretzgoalkeeper
R. Manningdefender
K. Schlotterbeckdefender
N. Wood-Gordondefender
J. Breedefender
J. Ward-Prowsemidfielder
F. Downesmidfielder
Léo Scienzamidfielder
F. Azazmidfielder
T. Fellowsmidfielder
C. Larinforward

Substitutes

Cameron Bragg
D. Mubama

Unavailable players

Southampton

C. Janderout · Lacking Match Fitness

Swansea

C. Burgessout · Achilles Tendon Injury
G. Francoout · Ankle Injury
R. Stewartout · injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Southampton, 1.13 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Southampton win or draw).
These values were computed from 2,268 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Southampton to win51.8%

Draw25.3%

Swansea to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Swansea

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Vítor Matos

Starting XI

L. Vigourouxgoalkeeper
J. Tymondefender
S. Welshdefender
B. Cabangodefender
F. Lissahdefender
M. Stamenićmidfielder
J. Fultonmidfielder
M. Yeomidfielder
E. Justmidfielder
Joseph Okopumidfielder
Z. Vipotnikforward

Substitutes

A. Fisher
A. Idah
Eom Ji-Sung
J. Key
J. Seelt
M. Widell
Ronald
S. Eustáquio
Tiago Parente

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Southampton win or draw77.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.7%

X2 — draw or Swansea win48.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.3%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Southampton lead at half-time40.4%

Level at half-time41.2%

Swansea lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Southampton ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead59.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2268 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Southampton: at least 10Actual: 10
Swansea: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Southampton: at least 5Actual: 9
Swansea: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Southampton score1.72

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (35% more).

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.04

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.7%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2268 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 97 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.