Championship · England · Regular Season - 5

Swansea–Wrexham

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Swansea		Wrexham
6	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
661	Passes	415
566	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Swansea 1.42 · Wrexham 1.14. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Swansea 6 · Wrexham 8; on target 3 and 1.
Swansea kept the ball more (61%).

Unavailable players

Swansea

C. Burgessout · Achilles Tendon Injury
G. Francoout · Ankle Injury
R. Stewartout · injury
B. Cabangodoubtful · not in squad

Wrexham

B. Sheafout · not in squad
G. Thomasonout · Thigh Injury
L. Cacaceout · Calf Injury
N. Broadheadout · not in squad
S. Revanout · Hamstring Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

E. Bell→

4.73

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “Swansea to win”. Second comes “Wrexham to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Swansea, 1.17 for Wrexham.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,266 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Swansea to win41.2%

Draw28.5%

Wrexham to win30.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Swansea win or draw69.7%

12 — any result other than a draw71.5%

X2 — draw or Wrexham win58.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Swansea lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

Wrexham lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Swansea ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Wrexham ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2266 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Swansea: at least 8Actual: 10
Wrexham: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Swansea: at least 5Actual: 5
Wrexham: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (48.3%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Swansea score1.42

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Wrexham's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Wrexham score1.14

Attack: Wrexham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.9%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2266 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 50 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.