Championship · England · Regular Season - 5

Portsmouth–Cardiff

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fratton Park, Portsmouth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'PortsmouthC. Shaughnessy (assist: T. Shade)
52'PortsmouthMarezi (assist: A. Segecic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Portsmouth		Cardiff
15	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
5	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
252	Passes	475
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Portsmouth 1.51 · Cardiff 1.14. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Portsmouth 15 · Cardiff 16; on target 5 and 5.
Cardiff kept the ball more (64%).

Unavailable players

Portsmouth

C. Ogilvieout · Knee Injury
F. Umehout · Hamstring Injury
J. Farrellout · Groin Injury
J. Murphyout · injury
K. Andersonout · Muscle Injury
M. Kosznovszkyout · Knee Injury
T. Waddinghamout · Ankle Injury

Cardiff

C. Chambersout · Knee Injury
D. Lawlorout · Muscle Injury
W. Fishout · Hernia
K. Bielikdoubtful · not in squad

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 15:10.

Referee

B. Speedie→

2.44

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.3%: “Portsmouth to win”. Second comes “Cardiff to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Portsmouth, 1.40 for Cardiff.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 2,259 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Portsmouth to win40.3%

Draw26.4%

Cardiff to win33.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,777 of 3,996 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Portsmouth win or draw66.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.6%

X2 — draw or Cardiff win59.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Portsmouth lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time40.4%

Cardiff lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Portsmouth ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Cardiff ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 2259 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Portsmouth: at least 9Actual: 15
Cardiff: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Portsmouth: at least 5Actual: 5
Cardiff: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Portsmouth score1.51

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cardiff concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cardiff score1.14

Attack: Cardiff score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 2259 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 96 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.